NAIROBI, 3 November 2026 – Regional banking and financial solutions provider NCBA Group Plc is forecasting a marginally lower economic growth rate in Kenya, with economic output projected at 4.8 per cent in its revised 2026 Economic Outlook.
Down from its earlier 5.1 per cent GDP forecast, NCBA projects slower growth as external shocks and domestic economic pressures weigh in on the country’s outlook.
Speaking at the NCBA Economic Forum 2026, held under the theme “Sustaining Economic Resilience, While Safeguarding Policy Gains in 2027,” NCBA Group Managing Director and CEO, John Gachora noted that while the economy has shown resilience, its capacity to absorb further shocks is still a key concern.
The event was graced by National Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi; World Bank Division Director for Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, and Uganda Dr Qimiao Fan; and Dr David Ndii, Chairperson of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors (CEA), among others. Looking to 2027, Mr Gachora said NCBA expects growth to remain within a wider range of 4.0-5.0 per cent, owing to elevated uncertainty from global political tensions, volatile commodity prices, changing weather patterns, and the upcoming general elections.
“The year 2026 has been characterized by a convergence of shocks, including the crisis in the Middle East, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, a sudden tightening of monetary policy in several key economies and volatility in sovereign bond markets. While our economy has remained resilient, our capacity to absorb successive shocks is not limitless. Our task is therefore twofold: to safeguard the gains made so far while accelerating growth,” said Mr Gachora.
Hon. John Mbadi, Cabinet Secretary for the National Treasury and Economic Planning, highlighted Kenya’s macroeconomic gains since 2022, with economic growth averaging 5 per cent between 2022 and 2025, inflation remaining within the target range at 7.3 per cent in October 2026, the shilling strengthening to an average of approximately KES 129.9 against the US dollar and foreign exchange reserves rising to USD 14.9 billion, equivalent to 6.1 months of import cover. He noted that sustaining these gains would require continued fiscal discipline, more efficient public spending, stronger revenue mobilisation and prudent debt management, particularly as rising expenditure pressures, including domestic debt interest payments and pension obligations, continue to constrain available fiscal resources.
“We project economic growth of 5.1 per cent in 2027, with inflation remaining within target and the shilling maintaining stability. Safeguarding these gains will require sustained fiscal discipline, improved revenue mobilisation and better management of public expenditure. We are also undertaking reforms to improve access to credit, including transparent, risk-based credit pricing anchored on KESONIA, modernised payment systems and the transformation of the Credit Guarantee Scheme to unlock more lending to SMEs,” said Mr Mbadi.
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Beyond fiscal policy, the forum highlighted the need to strengthen Kenya’s productive capacity, expand exports and attract investment into sectors capable of driving long-term economic growth. While gains in agriculture, manufacturing and other areas point to improving economic activity, sustaining this momentum will require greater investment, improved productivity and a more enabling business environment.
Supporting this view, Dr David Ndii, Chairperson of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, pointed to improving activity across agriculture, manufacturing and other sectors, noting that gains in milk production, sugar output, coffee production and vehicle registrations reflected stronger underlying economic momentum, some of which was not yet captured in official statistics.
“Kenya’s next phase of growth will depend on steering investment and improving productivity in sectors that generate jobs, expand exports and create economic value. We are tracking an investment pipeline of approximately USD 45.7 billion across infrastructure, manufacturing, agriculture and ICT, alongside a proposed National Infrastructure Fund expected to mobilize USD 10 billion. Major opportunities, including the proposed USD 24 billion Lamu Port and oil complex investment, could further strengthen export capacity, infrastructure development and regional integration.”
Looking ahead, industry leaders noted that geopolitical tensions, commodity price volatility, adverse weather conditions and tighter global financial conditions would continue to test economic resilience in 2027. They emphasized the need for sound economic policies and stronger collaboration between government, the private sector and development partners to safeguard macroeconomic stability, unlock investment, strengthen productive capacity and sustain job creation.
